Market Time Machine

Hook 5 min

1. "Your grandparent gives you $10,000 and says: put it in stocks, bonds, cash or gold, then don't touch it for 30 years. What do you pick?" Take a quick vote.
2. "We can't see the future, but we can travel to the past and see what really happened."

Explore 18 min

1. Pairs keep the starting settings ($10,000, 60% stocks and 40% bonds, starting in 1990) and press Launch. Thirty years play in about five seconds.
2. Look at the faint lines for each asset alone. Pairs fill in the board table: which grew most, which was bumpiest.
3. Pairs change one thing at a time: the start year (try 1929, 1973 and 2000), the mix, and the fee. Turn on Buying power to see results after inflation.
4. Open Every start year. Compare a 1-year stay with a 20-year stay. "What happens to the range of results as the stay gets longer?"

Make sense 12 min

1. "Why might someone choose bonds or cash even though stocks grew more?" (Less risk, and they need the money soon.)
2. "Why does a 20-year stay look so different from a 1-year stay?" (Bad years and good years even out over time.)
3. Introduce diversification: "What did mixing stocks and bonds do to the bumps?"
4. "Cash never dropped. Did it keep its buying power?" (Often no. Inflation ate it.)

Apply 10 min

1. Pairs do Missions: at least Bad timing, the fees mission and steady saving. Predict first, then launch.
2. Debrief the fee mission: "A 1% fee left about a third less after 40 years. Why so much more than 1%?" (Fees compound every year, just like returns.)

Exit check 5 min

On a card, in three sentences: one reason stocks are risky, one thing that has lowered that risk in the past, and one reason these past results might not repeat. Cards that promise future returns show who needs the "history is not a forecast" point again.